According to The Kobeissi Letter citing @Kalshi, the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025 has jumped to 43% following President Trump's new tariff threats. This heightened recession risk may trigger increased volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets, as traders anticipate potential capital flows from equities to digital assets as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty (source: Kalshi via The Kobeissi Letter, May 23, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US consumers' expectations about their financial situation over the next year dropped to an all-time low in May 2025, as reported by the latest University of Michigan survey (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 22, 2025). Sentiment levels are now even lower than during the 2008 financial crisis and the late 1970s economic downturns. This unprecedented pessimism could accelerate capital flows into alternative assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins, as investors search for hedges against economic uncertainty. Crypto traders should monitor on-chain data for increased inflows and heightened volatility, as shifts in risk appetite may drive both short-term price swings and longer-term adoption trends in digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US consumers' expectations for their financial situation over the next year have dropped to an all-time low in May 2025, as reported by the University of Michigan survey (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 22, 2025). This pessimism surpasses levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis and late 1970s stagflation. For traders, this heightened economic uncertainty often leads to increased volatility in traditional markets and can drive capital flows into alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Historical data suggests that periods of low consumer confidence frequently correlate with spikes in crypto trading volumes as investors seek hedges against US dollar depreciation and stock market instability.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, higher yields are generally viewed as bearish for the stock market because rising borrowing costs slow down economic activity, especially during periods of uncertainty. The Kobeissi Letter further notes that ongoing debates over the US tax bill and increasing deficit spending add to market uncertainty. For crypto traders, this heightened volatility in traditional markets often leads to increased interest in digital assets as alternative investments, potentially impacting Bitcoin and Ethereum trading volumes and price trends (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 21, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Consumer Sentiment Index dropped by 1.4 points to 52.2, marking the second-lowest reading ever recorded, even lower than during the 2008 financial crisis and the 1980s recession (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 17, 2025). The current conditions component also fell by 2.2 points to 57.6, signifying deepening pessimism among US consumers. For crypto traders, such historically negative consumer sentiment signals rising economic uncertainty, potentially increasing volatility across risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as investors reassess safe havens and market sentiment shifts. This data is critical for trading strategies as it often precedes significant market moves in both traditional equities and cryptocurrencies.

According to The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, 44% of US consumers now expect higher unemployment within the next 12 months, marking the highest level since 2020. The New York Fed reports this figure has surged by 10 percentage points in just two months, representing the second-largest two-month increase on record. Such a sharp shift in consumer sentiment may signal economic uncertainty, often leading to increased volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets as investors seek safe-haven assets or adjust risk exposure. Crypto traders should closely monitor macroeconomic sentiment indicators, as rising unemployment expectations can influence liquidity, risk appetite, and capital flows into digital assets. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, NY Fed, May 16, 2025)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, 23% of S&P 500 companies referenced 'recession' during their Q1 2025 earnings calls, the highest level since 2022 and exceeding all years from 2008 to 2020 except one (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 13, 2025). This significant uptick in recession concerns among US corporate executives signals heightened economic uncertainty, which historically drives increased volatility and risk-off sentiment in both traditional equities and cryptocurrency markets. Traders should monitor for potential capital flows out of risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as macroeconomic caution rises.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index plunged by 38.9 points in April to -26.4, marking its lowest reading since April 2023 and the second-lowest since 2020 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 12, 2025). Additionally, new orders fell by 42.9 points to -34.2, the weakest since April 2020. This sharp contraction in US manufacturing signals increased economic uncertainty, which often leads to heightened volatility in both traditional equities and the cryptocurrency market as traders seek safe-haven assets and reassess risk exposure.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US employers announced 105,441 job cuts in April 2025, marking the highest April layoffs in five years, excluding the pandemic spike in 2020 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 8, 2025). Over the last six months, total layoffs reached 699,012, the most since the 2020 pandemic. This sharp increase in job cuts signals rising economic uncertainty, which has historically increased stock market volatility and often driven risk-averse investors towards alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders should closely monitor crypto market inflows and price movements, as heightened layoffs can impact both traditional and digital asset markets (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 8, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US employers announced 105,441 job cuts in April 2025, marking the highest April layoff total in five years and the largest April count since 2009, excluding the pandemic year 2020 (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 8, 2025). Over the last six months, there have been 699,012 job cuts, the highest since 2020. This significant rise in layoffs signals potential macroeconomic instability, which traders should monitor as it may lead to increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets. Historically, economic uncertainty and rising unemployment have triggered shifts in capital flows, often resulting in heightened crypto market activity as investors seek alternative assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the number of long-term unemployed Americans surged to 1.67 million in April 2025, marking the highest level since February 2022. Over the past two years, those unemployed for 27 weeks or more increased by approximately 600,000. This trend signals persistent labor market weakness, which could impact consumer spending and overall economic sentiment. For crypto traders, elevated long-term unemployment may drive increased volatility as investors hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty by reallocating assets into digital currencies. These labor market shifts are crucial for crypto market positioning (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 7, 2025).

According to Cas Abbé, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently outperforming the S&P 500, coinciding with a negative US Q1 GDP report and record-high economic uncertainty (source: @cas_abbe, May 1, 2025). This signals BTC’s evolution into a global hedge asset, as investors seek alternatives amid macroeconomic volatility. The BTC/SPX ratio breakout is viewed as a technical confirmation of this trend, indicating potential for further institutional inflows and sustained upward momentum for BTC relative to traditional equities (source: @cas_abbe). Traders are advised to monitor BTC/SPX ratios and institutional flow data for actionable signals.

According to Matt Hougan, Bitcoin is experiencing a rally due to economic disruptions. Hougan suggests that the measures to 'fix' the economy could further boost Bitcoin's price. This implies potential bullish momentum for Bitcoin traders. Monitoring economic policies and their impacts on cryptocurrency markets could provide trading opportunities. Hougan’s insights highlight the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends in crypto trading.

According to Miles Deutscher, Bitcoin ($BTC) is decoupling from traditional stock markets while showing a rally pattern similar to gold. This trend suggests a strengthening of the 'digital gold' narrative as Bitcoin increasingly serves as a safe haven asset amidst economic uncertainties. Traders may find this correlation significant as it could influence Bitcoin's price stability and potential growth during volatile economic periods.

According to The White House, President Trump's participation in the WH Easter Prayer Service and his emphasis on faith could influence investor sentiment, potentially stabilizing cryptocurrency markets amidst broader economic uncertainty.

According to @santimentfeed, the first half of April in the cryptocurrency market was heavily influenced by economic uncertainty and the unexpected collapse of Mantra. This has significant implications for traders as it impacts market volatility and investment strategies. Furthermore, the outlook for the XRP ETF is covered, potentially signaling shifts in investor sentiment. Teucrium's successful launch of a 2x ETF highlights a growing trend in leveraged ETFs, which could attract more speculative trading activities. For detailed analysis, refer to Bybit's biweekly market update.

According to @KobeissiLetter, gold has exhibited significant performance, outpacing stocks over the last 20 years with a remarkable 620% increase compared to the S&P 500's 580% gain. In the past nine months, gold prices have surged by over $1,000 per ounce. This trend suggests that gold is trading as though the economy is in a depression, indicating a potential hedge against market volatility. Traders might consider gold's surge as a signal to adjust portfolios accordingly, focusing on secure investments during uncertain economic times.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, global net gold purchases by central banks reached 24 tonnes in February, marking a strategic shift as they acquired a significant 3,176 tonnes over the past three years. This trend suggests a hedging strategy against economic uncertainty, which could influence cryptocurrency markets as investors seek alternative safe-haven assets. Crypto traders should monitor these developments, as increased gold accumulation by central banks may signal market volatility, impacting crypto asset prices.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, gold has significantly outperformed bond returns over the past 4-5 years, with gold up 114% since March 2020, while the bond-tracking ETF $TLT has decreased by 45%. This highlights a major shift in market sentiment, making it one of gold's most bullish developments recently. Factors contributing to this trend include investor preference for tangible assets amidst economic uncertainty and inflation concerns. As bond yields remained low, investors turned to gold as a hedge, driving its price higher.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, gold prices are experiencing a significant surge, indicating potential market instabilities. The rapid increase in gold prices suggests that traders may be seeking safe-haven assets in response to broader economic uncertainties. This trend is critical for traders assessing risk and portfolio diversification strategies.